The D3 is a competitor for the Canon 1DMk3, and does an admirable job in pipping Canon when you take into account that Nikon has now levelled the playing field with AFS and VR 2 being added to the new 400, 500 and 600 long lens. But in leveling the playing field Nikon will not tempt back the sports and nature photographers who already made the move to Canon. This is what is surprising me so far as I don't see any benefit other than to keep the loyal Nikonians from jumping ship at the 11th hour. Unless, and it is a huge unless, Nikon can inspire new customers through very competitive pricing.

The D300 is the replacement of the D2x. Let me rephrase that, the Nikon D300 is a Nikon D2x but better and it comes in a nice portable sized body.

So where is the D3x? I am going to put my neck on the line and say that there will never be a D3x! There will be a D4 though. I believe it should be clear to Nikon that at the higher end of the market, and taking into account the lead that Canon has and will continue to hold, playing catchup and even following copy cat like naming policies has no future. The battle is about prestige, and Nikon's reputation is becoming that of a follower rather than an innovator at the top end of the market. They may be better engineers than Canon but Canon have vision and drive. Nikon knows this and one has to hazard a guess that to protect their position, and serious income, in the lower end SLr and compact markets that the D4 should be a truely innovative piece of work aimed to win prestige and accolade.

So where does this leave D2x users and what is the future for us. I am not sure what the future is for all of you but for me, as a nature photographer, I have a number of choices to muse:

Upgrade my D2x to a Nikon D3 ? No advantage to me whatsoever, especially considering that my Dx lens would only be producing 5.1 MP images on the FX sensor. Additionally, my non DX lens' would be producing equivalent sized images that my D2x produces (12 MP). So for an expenditure of $4500 (my estimation of the cost of the D3 body) I get a few camera improvements and notably better ISO performance. Does not make financial sense.

Buy a D300 and forget the idea of upgrading to a D4? This has merits, I would be able to continue to use my existing DX lens to their full potential. I would have an improvement on the D2x. I would have my existing D2x as a backup. I would not need to buy any new lens. The d300 is lighter and easier to carry on trips than the D2x. This has serious merits.

Do nothing and wait for the Nikon D4. The only issue I have with this strategy is that I will have to replace existing lens so the price to upgrade is more than the $6000 that I expect the D4 to cost. So let me look at those costs some more:

Lets have a look at the Nikon DX lens line-up:

10.5mm f/2.8G ED AF DX Fisheye-Nikkor
12-24mm f/4G ED-IF AF-S DX Zoom-Nikkor
18-55mm f/3.5-5.6G ED II AF-S DX Zoom-Nikkor
18-70mm f/3.5-4.5G ED-IF AF-S DX Zoom
18-135mm f/3.5-5.6G ED-IF AF-S DX Zoom-Nikkor
18-200mm f/3.5-5.6 G ED-IF AF-S VR DX Zoom-Nikkor
17-55mm f/2.8G ED-IF AF-S DX Zoom-Nikkor
55-200mm f/4-5.6G ED AF-S DX Zoom-Nikkor
55-200mm f/4-5.6G ED-IF AF-S VR DX Zoom-Nikkor

Out of this Nikon DX lens list I use the following:

10.5mm f/2.8G ED AF DX Fisheye-Nikkor. This lens I will not replace as I use it only underwater - so as I plan to continue using the D2x and the Nexus D2x housing for underwater I am not going to need a replacement fisheye for topside.

12-24mm f/4G ED-IF AF-S DX Zoom-Nikkor. I cannot do without this lens, I love it so its range so it will have to be replaced by the 14-24.

18-200mm f/3.5-5.6 G ED-IF AF-S VR DX Zoom-Nikkor. My "work horse" and the most flexible topside lens I have. Will need to be replaced.

17-55mm f/2.8G ED-IF AF-S DX Zoom-Nikkor. Since getting the 18-200 I have used it only when I needed its close focus capability so I don't think I will be replacing this lens.

So that's just 2 lens to be replaced, assuming the new lens are roughly the same sales price it will add an additional $2000 to the cost of an upgrade to the D4. That's not so bad considering.

And my last option, should I just dump my investment in Nikon equipment and go with Canon? No, I simply cannot afford to follow all those who have already taken this route. My investment in the Nikon is about $30,000 in total, both Nikon and 3rd party gear suited for Nikon. I just cannot justify starting out again.

So, in conclusion, I have two options a) follow the normal upgrade path at a cost of around $8000 or b) go with the D300 and pay $1800. I think I am going to do both!! The d300 offers me instant advantages but we can assume that Nikon are taking this route in order to stop the mass revolt of DX lens owners and give them time to get used to the changeover to FF. As the changeover to FF is something we will need to embrace in order to get usable high ISO (similar to Canon) I have to follow the traditional upgrade route also.

So what will the D4 give us? When will we see it?

Well the main features of the Nikon D3 that we will also see on the D4, I believe are:

a) FX-format CMOS FF image sensor 12.1 effective megapixels - this set the stage for the D4 to have a 20+ MP sensor
b) Compatible with three image-sensor formats – FX format (36 x 24), 5:4 (30 x 24) and DX format (24 x 16) - this will be carried through to the D4 and provides the option to frame pictures the same size as common prints
c) Sensitivity range ISO 200 to 6400 at normal setting for exceptionally high-quality images - I believe this will be expanded on the D4 and we will see ISO 80 to 6400
d) Incorporates Nikon's original EXPEED digital image processing concept - also will be carried over to the D4
e) Nikon's original Scene Recognition system, utilizing the 1,005-pixel RGB sensor, greatly improves autofocus, auto exposure and auto white balance performance - software improvements before the launch of the D4 will mean thats the D4 passes this spec
f) New 51-point autofocus system features 15 cross-type sensors that maximize the potential of lenses - to be acrried to the D4
g) High-speed continuous shooting at approx. 9 frames per second [FX format (36 x 24)/5:4 (30 x 24)]/approx. 11 fps [DX format (24 x 16)] *1 - The D4 could be limited to slightly less
h) Newly employed Picture Control System enables creation of desired picture with preferred tones - will be carried over to the D4
i) Accurate focal-plane contrast AF*2 available with built-in Live view mode - will be carried over to the D4
j) CF card double slot accepts two CF cards - will be carried over to the D4
k) Viewfinder with approx. 100% frame coverage and approx. 0.7x magnification in FX format - this much improved viewfinder will be carried over to the D4
l) High-definition (920,000 dots), 170? viewing angle, 3-inch VGA LCD monitor with tempered glass - will be carried over to the D4
m) Active D-Lighting optimizes tone reproduction in both shadows and highlights - will be carried over to the D4

I also think we going to see a number of other additions, including a new body that will incorporate some quite innovative additions such as a HDD unit, extensive incorporation of graphs and information directly into the viewfinder, auto dust off, extensive improvement to low contrast AF engine. But lets wait and see. How long to wait? I think January for the announcement and the camera to follow 3 months later.

In the meantime you may want to follow the latest pricing updates latest pricing updates for the new Nikons

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